The World is Getting Better 

We are blessed to begin the new year with excellent news: “In material ways the world is rapidly getting better.”  The late Swedish physician, Dr. Hans Rosling thoroughly documented this progress in his 2018 book, Factfulness: …Why Things Are Better than You think. Greg Ip updated this theme in the Wall Street Journal of January third, 2019 (p. A 2) with an article “The World Is Quietly Getting Better”. 

Although poverty was forever the world norm, today much of the world is booming.  In the late1700s only a few advanced capitalist nations were doing well by the standards of their time.  Today even their well-off citizens would be considered severely impoverished lacking even pure water, plumbing or central heat. 

Now half the world is middle class or wealthy.  Concurrently, illiteracy, violence, and disease are receding.   Smallpox was eliminated in 1980 and there were fewer than 100 cases of polio and Guinea worm infections by 2017.  American cancer deaths are in a 20-year decline.

Life expectancy was under 30 years in 1820.  Now 72 is the world average.  In that period average global income rose by a factor of twelve, a 1200% increase.  Commodities prices fell by nearly two thirds between 1980 and 2017. 

What explains this progress?  Much of this success derives from applied science and productive economic arrangements. Traditionally, America’s system encouraged people to increase wealth rather than reward politicians who transferred wealth to the powerful.  Hence, the value of stuff lying around or underground moved to higher value.  Likewise, human capital increased through education.

Inexpensive energy is a large factor in this success.  Energy is essential for nearly all physically productive human activities.  These include agriculture, fishing, forestry, and manufacturing.  When energy costs go down and efficiency up, goods and activities become less expensive.  More and poorer people can afford them. 

And most energy costs have gone down relative to incomes.  For example, in constant dollars crude oil prices have dropped 43% from 1980 to 2017.  Coal is used mainly for electricity production and it's price declined over 10% in the past 40 years as it competed with natural gas.  Generating plants switched to this less expensive and less polluting commodity natural gas. 

These decreases in energy costs have dramatic positive effects on material well-being.  Prosperity is becoming a realistic goal for a majority of the world population not living in socialist countries.

The trinity of liberty, ecology and prosperity has become a real possibility not an illusion nor a mirage.

A Montana Ranch where Liberty, Ecology and Prosperity Unite.

How might Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's "Green New Deal" affect this pleasing progress?   

We’ll explore more in our next FREE Insight.